BCG:积极气候目标将为中国创造多方位机遇

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2020NIAN9YUE22RI,XIJINPINGZHUXIZAIDIQISHIWUJIELIANHEGUODAHUISHANGCHENGNUO,ZHONGGUOJIANGCAIQUGENGYOULIDEZHENGCEHECUOSHI,NULIZHENGQU2060NIANZHIQIANSHIXIANTANZHONGHE [1] 。GAICHENGNUOTIXIANLEZHONGGUOXIESHOUSHIJIENULIEZHIQIHOUBIANNUAN、KONGZHIQUANQIUSHENGWENFUDUDEZHANGJIUYUANJING,TONGSHIYEDAIBIAOZHEZHONGGUOJIANGWEICIYUANJINGJIJITOURUDEWUHUIJUEXIN。

BCGDONGSHIZONGJINGLI、QUANQIUZISHENHEHUOREN、ZHONGGUOQUZHIXINGHEHUORENFANLESI(Lars Faeste)BIAOSHI:“RUGUOYAOZAI2060NIANZHIQIANSHIXIANTANZHONGHEMUBIAO,ZHONGGUOXULIKEKAISHIXINGDONGBINGYANZHE1.5℃LUJING [2] BUXIENULI,LIZHENGZAI2050NIANQIANSHIXIAN75%-85%DEWENSHIQITIJIANPAI。ZAIZHEIYILUJINGXIA,ZHONGGUOXUYAOZAIDANGQIANJIANTANJIHUADEJICHUSHANGDAFUDUDIJIADATOURU,NULITUPOXIANXINGJISHUYUSHEHUIRENZHIBIANJIE。”LINGYIFANGMIAN,BAOGAOYEDUI2℃LUJING[2]JINXINGLECHANSHU,GAIQINGJINGCHONGFENKAOLVDAOJISHUYUJINGJIDEBUQUEDINGXING,WEIZHONGGUOJIANPAIDAOLUTIGONGLEYIFENKEKAODEBEIXUANFANGAN。

ZAIJIZHUNQINGJING XIA[3],YUJIZHONGGUO2050NIANTANPAIFANGJIANGJIAOXIANZHUANGJIANGDI10%-20%,YUTANZHONGHEMUBIAOXIANGBIHAICUNZAIHENDACHAJU。ZHONGGUOXUJIANDINGXINXIN,CONGGENBENZUOQI,JIJILUOSHIGENGDUOJIANTANJUCUO,RUTINGZHIHUODIANCHANGZAIGUONEIWAIDEJINYIBUKUOZHANG、ZAIGONGYELINGYU(RUGANGTIE、SHUINIHEJIANZHUGONGCHENG)CUJINNENGXIAOTISHENGYIDADAOQUANQIULINGXIANBIAOZHUNDENG。RUOZHONGGUOBUCAIQUGENGJIAJIJIDEJUCUO,SHIJIEWANCHENG1.5℃SHENGWENKONGZHIMUBIAODEKENENGXINGWEIHUQIWEI。

BCGDONGSHIZONGJINGLI、QUANQIUHEHUOREN、SHEHUIYINGXIANGLIZHUANXIANGZHONGGUOQUHEXINLINGDAOThomas PalmeBIAOSHI:“DUIYUZHONGGUOLAISHUO,DANGXIASHIYINLINGSHIJIEJIASUQUANQIUJIANPAIXINGDONGDEZUIHAOSHIJI。ZAIQIHOUBIANHUASHANGQIDONGGENGJIAJIJIDEMUBIAO,YOULIYUGUOJIADEKECHIXUFAZHANYUGUANGDARENMINDEGENBENLIYI。‘LVSEJINGJI’YEJIANGDUIGDPQIDAOJIJICUJINZUOYONG,YUJIJIANGYU2050NIANGONGXIANCHAOGUO2%DEGDP。TONGSHI,GUOJIADENENGYUANANQUANYEJIANGSHOUDAOBAOHU,HUASHIRANLIAOXIAOHAOYUJIJIANSHAOYUE80%,DAFUJIANGDIDUIBUKEZAISHENG、JINKOUNENGYUANDEYILAI。ZAIQINGJIENENGYUANDEJIACHIXIA,ZHONGGUODECHUKOUJINGZHENGLIYIHUIDAFUDUTISHENG。”

  • CONGPAIFANGLAIYUANJIAODUKAN,JIZHUNQINGJINGXIAGONGYEBUMENDEJIANPAIFUDUZUIDA,2050NIANJIANGXIANGJIAOXIANZHUANGSHIXIANYUE50%DEJIANPAI。WEIMIBUYU1.5℃NAIZHITANZHONGHEMUBIAODECHAJU,NENGYUANBUMENBIXUGONGXIANGENGDAJIANTANBILI,JIAOJIZHUNQINGJINGZAIZENGJIACHAOGUO60GEBAIFENDIANDEJIANPAI。QIZHONG,HENENGYUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFADIANJIANGSHIBUKEHUOQUEDEGUANJIANJIEJUEFANGAN。

  • CONGSHIXIANLUJINGJIAODUKAN,TUIGUANGBUYILAIHUASHIRANLIAODEGUANJIANJISHU、DAIDONGNENGYUANJIEGOUZHUANXINGSHIJIENENGJIANPAIDEGUANJIANZHUASHOU,JIANGGONGXIANYUE70%DEWENSHIQITIJIANPAI。TONGSHI,TUIDONGGUANJIANJISHUFAZHANDEXIANGGUANZHENGCEZHIGUANZHONGYAO(RUKEZAISHENGYUHENENGFADIAN、XINNENGYUANCHEZHENGCETUIDONG),TANDINGJIASHOUDUANHUOJIANGCHENGWEIJIASUJIENENGJIANPAIJUCUODEGUANJIANZHUTUILILIANG。

  • WEILEZHENZHENGSHIXIANTANZHONGHECHENGNUO,ZHONGGUOZAIBUFENZUIJUTIAOZHANXINGDEJUCUOSHANGSHENZHIXUYAOCHAOEWANCHENG1.5℃LUJINGXIADEMUBIAO,BINGQIEXUYAOGENGJIASHENRUDEWAJUEFUPAIFANG(RUTANBUHUOYUCHUCUN、TANHUI [4] )QIANLI。

  • CONGZIBENTOURUJIAODUKAN,WEISHIXIANTANZHONGHEMUBIAO,ZHONGGUO2020NIANZHI2050NIANLEIJIXUYAO90-100WANYIRENMINBITOUZI,YUEZHANZHEI30NIANJIANLEIJIGDPZONGEDE2%。

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继往开来,积极气候目标将为中国创造多方位机遇

GUOQUDE20DUONIANJIJIANZHENGLEZHONGGUODEKUAISUFAZHAN,YESHIZHONGGUOCHENGWEITANPAIFANGDAGUODELICHENG。2013NIANHOU,SUIZHEJINGJIZENGZHANGQUHUAN,YIJIJIENENGJIANPAICUOSHILIDUDEJIADA,TANPAILIANGJINRUPINGTAIQI。QUANQIULAIKAN,JINGUANZENGSUQUHUAN,DANZHONGGUOTANPAIFANGZHANQUANQIUBILICHAOGUO20%,WEISHIJIEDIYIDETANPAIFANGDAGUO。JINGJICHANYEJIEGOU、NENGYUANQINGJIECHENGDU、NENGYUANSHIYONGXIAOLV、NENGYUANXUQIUQIANGDUDEGONGTONGZUOYONGDAOZHIZHONGGUOTANPAIFANGXIANJINDEJUDATILIANG。

BCGDONGSHIZONGJINGLI、QUANQIUHEHUOREN、SHEHUIYINGXIANGLIZHUANXIANGZHONGGUOQUFUZERENCHENBAIPINGBIAOSHI:“ZAIGUOQUDESHIJINIANZHONG,ZHONGGUOZAIGEWEIDUJUNCAIQULEQIESHIYOUXIAODEXINGDONG。NENGYUANFANGMIAN,ZHONGGUOSHISHIJIEGUANGFUXINGYEDELINGDAOZHE,ZHANQUANQIUGUANGFUZHUANGJILIANGDE45%ZUOYOU,BINGCHIXUWEIGUANGFUJIAGEJIANGDIZUOCHUGONGXIAN。GONGYEFANGMIAN,‘SHISANWU’QIJIANZHONGGUOZHILIYUGONGJICEGAIGE,QINGTUILEDALIANGDIXIAOCHANNENG。JIAOTONGFANGMIAN,ZHENGFUTONGGUOSHUANGJIFENZHENGCEYINDAOXINNENGYUANCHEPUJI。JIANZHUFANGMIAN,ZHONGGUOCHUTAILELVSEJIANZHUPINGJIABIAOZHUNHEBIAOZHIRENZHENG。NONGYEHETUDILIYONGFANGMIAN,ZHONGGUOSHIJINSHINIANLAISENLINMIANJIJINGZENGJIAZUIDADEGUOJIA。”

JINGUANZAIJIANTANFANGMIANCHENGJIUKEGUAN,DANYINZHONGGUORENGCHUYUKUAISUFAZHANJIEDUANQIETANPAIFANGJISHUPANGDA,XIANYOUJUCUOHAIYUANBUZUYISHIXIANBALIXIEDINGDE2℃/1.5℃NAIZHICHENGNUODETANZHONGHEMUBIAO。ZHIDINGGENGGAODEJIANTANMUBIAO,JIANGCONGFAZHANDEKECHIXUXING、ZHIJIEDEJINGJICUJIN、GUOJIANENGYUANANQUANXINGSANFANGMIANWEIZHONGGUOFAZHANDAILAIXINDEJIYU。

面向碳中和目标的中国气候路径建议

BCGCESUANLEBUTONGQINGJINGXIA,ZHONGGUOWENSHIQITIJIANPAIQUSHI(CANYUEXIATU)。ZAIJIZHUNQINGJINGXIA,JIEZHI2050NIANWENSHIQITIPAIFANGXIANGJIAOXIANZHUANGJIANGJIANGFU10%-20%,JULIDACHENG《BALIXIEDING》DESHENGWENKONGZHIYIJIZHONGGUOCHENGNUODETANZHONGHEMUBIAOHAIYOUHENDACHAJU。BCGFENXIBIAOMING,JIKEQIGUANCHE1.5℃LUJINGSHIZHONGGUOZAI2060NIANZHIQIANSHIXIANTANZHONGHEMUBIAODEBIYOUZHILU。ZHONGGUOYINGLIZHENGZAI2050NIANQIANSHIXIAN75%-85%DEWENSHIQITIJIANPAI。ZAIZHEIYIGUOCHENGZHONG,ZHONGGUOXUYAOZAIDANGQIANJIHUADEJICHUSHANGTUIXINGGENGJIAJIJIDEJIANTANJUCUO,BINGNULITUPOXIANXINGJISHUYUSHEHUIRENZHIBIANJIE。

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WEILECONGGENBENSHANGLEJIEZHONGGUOQUTANJIANPAIDEGUANJIANZHUASHOU,BCGJIANGZHONGGUODEJIANTANJUCUOFENWEINENGYUANJIEGOUZHUANXING、MOSHISHENGJI、NENGXIAOTISHENG、TANBUHUOYUCHUCUNJISHU(CCS)SIDALEI。QIZHONG,NENGYUANJIEGOUZHUANXINGDEJIANTANYINGXIANGZUIWEIXIANZHU,JIANGGONGXIANYUE70%DEWENSHIQITIJIANPAI,ZHUYAOYOUNENGYUANBUMENDEQINGJIENENGYUANFADIAN、JIAOTONGBUMENDEDIANDONGHUAZHUANXINGDAIDONG。MOSHISHENGJICIZHI,YUEZHANWENSHIQITIJIANPAIDE20%,QIZHONGGONGYILIUCHENGCHUANGXIN、KECHIXUNONGYEXIANGGUANJUCUOGONGXIANZHUYAOFENE。TANBUHUOYUCHUCUNJISHUDUIJIANPAIDEGONGXIANTONGYANGBUKEXIAOQU,ZAIHUASHIRANLIAOWUFAWANQUANQINGTUIDEQINGKUANGXIA,CCSJISHUJIANGSHIBITUIXING。

ZAITANZHONGHEMUBIAODEZHIYINXIA,NENGYUAN、JIAOTONG、GONGYE、JIANZHU、NONGYEYUTUDILIYONGWUDABUMENXUYAOGONGTONGNULI,KAIQIDITANZHUANXING(CANYUEXIATU)。WEILESHIXIAN1.5℃LUJINGXIAWENSHIQITIJIANPAIMUBIAO,WUDABUMENXUYAODACHENGYUE60%-105%BUDENGDEJIANPAIFUDU,DUIYUBUFENBUMENLAISHUO,JIEJINLINGPAIFANGJIBIE。ZHEIYIWEIZHEYIGUOJUEDEZHENGCEQUDONG、JIZHIGAIGEWEIGENJI,YIJIJIYOULIDEJIANPAIJUCUOWEIZHUASHOU,TUIDONGXINGYEDEGENBENBIANGE、QIYEDELVSEZHUANXINGYUGONGZHONGDEJIANTANLINIAN。BIRU,ZAINENGYUANBUMENZHONGJIJITUIJINNENGYUANTIZHIGAIGE,CUJINGONGPINGJINGZHENGYUJISHUCHUANGXIN。ZAIGONGYEBUMENZHONGWAJUEGONGYILIUCHENGCHUANGXINDEJIANTANQIANLI,BINGYINDAOQIYEJIANLIWANSHANDEJIENENGJIANPAIJIANGUANNENGLI。ZAIJIAOTONG、JIANZHUBUMEN,TISHENGSHEHUIDUIJIAOTONGGONGJUDIANDONGHUA、CHUISHIYURESHUIDIANQIHUADEJIESHOUCHENGDU。

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WEISHIXIAN1.5℃LUJINGXIADEJIANPAIMUBIAO,JIEZHI2050NIANGEXIANGJUCUOSUOXULEIJITOUZIWEI90-100WANYIRENMINBI,YUEZHAN2020-2050NIANLEIJIGDPDE2%(CANYUEXIATU)。QIZHONG,JIAOTONGBUMENSUOXUTOUZIZUIDA,ZHUYAOBAOKUOJIAOTONGGONGJUDEDIANDONGHUAYIJIHANGKONGRANLIAODEQINGJIEZHUANXING。NENGYUANBUMENCIZHI,ZHUYAOYOUKEZAISHENGNENGYUAN、HENENGFADIANYIJICCSJISHUDEYANFAYUYINGYONGTUOZHANQUDONG。CHUCIYIWAI,GONGYEBUMENDEGONGYILIUCHENGCHUANGXIN、JIANZHUBUMENDEREBENGJISHU、NONGYEYUTUDILIYONGBUMENDELAJICHULIJISHUYEJIANGZHANJUJIAODADETOUZIFENE。

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实现碳中和的“最后一公里

ZHENGRUQIANWENSUOSHU,WEISHIXIANTANZHONGHECHENGNUO,ZHONGGUOXUYAOYANZHE 1.5 ℃ JIANPAILUJINGBUXIENULI,ZAIGEXIANGJUCUOSHANGLIZHENGZUODAOJIZHI。ERYAOZHENZHENGZAI 2060 NIANQIANSHIXIANTANZHONGHE,ZHONGGUOZAIBUFENZUIJUTIAOZHANXINGDEJUCUOSHANGSHENZHIXUYAOCHAOEWANCHENG 1.5 ℃ LUJINGXIADEMUBIAO。ZHUYAOBAOKUOZAINENGYUANBUMENJIJITUIJINHEDIANCHENGBENJIEJIANG、ANQUANTISHENGYUSHEHUIRENKE,ZAIGONGYEBUMENCUJIN CCS QUANMIANSHENTOU,JIAOTONGFANGMIANDAGUIMOJINZHIRANYOUCHEBINGJIASUQINGRANLIAOFEIJISHANGYEHUA,TUDILIYONGFANGMIANDALITUIDONGLAJIFENSHAOCHULI、BINGCHIXUWAJUETANHUIZENGZHANGDEQIANLI。



[1] TANZHONGHESHIZHIZAIGUIDINGSHIQINEI,ERYANGHUATANDERENWEIYICHUDIXIAOLERENWEIPAIFANG。RENWEIPAIFANGJIRENLEIHUODONGZAOCHENGDEERYANGHUATANPAIFANG,BAOKUOHUASHIRANLIAORANSHAO、GONGYEGUOCHENG、NONGYEJITUDILIYONGHUODONGPAIFANGDENG;RENWEIYICHUJIRENLEICONGDAQIZHONGYICHUERYANGHUATAN,BAOKUOZHISHUZAOLINZENGJIATANXISHOU、TANBUHUOYUFENGCUNDENG。

[2] 《BALIXIEDING》DEZHANGQIMUBIAOSHIJIANGQUANQIUPINGJUNQIWENJIAOQIANGONGYEHUASHIQIDESHENGFUKONGZHIZAI2℃YINEI,BINGNULIJIANGWENDUSHENGFUXIANZHIZAI1.5℃YINEI。2℃HE1.5℃LUJINGSHIJIYUBALIXIEDINGWENSHENGMUBIAODEPAIFANGLUJINGMONI。

[3] JIZHUNQINGJINGDINGYIWEIYANXUXIANYOUJIHUADEJIANPAIJUCUO、ZHENGCEKUANGJIA、YIJIKEYUJIANDEJISHULUJINGJIXUFAZHAN,BUZUOEWAIQUTANJIANPAINULIDEQINGJING。

[4] TANHUI,SHIZHITONGGUOZHISHUZAOLIN、SENLINGUANLI、ZHIBEIHUIFUDENGCUOSHI,LIYONGZHIWUGUANGHEZUOYONGXISHOUDAQIZHONGDEWENSHIQITI,BINGJIANGQIGUDINGZAIZHIBEIHETURANGZHONG,CONGERJIANSHAOWENSHIQITIZAIDAQIZHONGNONGDUDEGUOCHENG、HUODONGHUOJIZHI。


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